Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 11Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion MOSiR, Sieradz
The Footlab model makes Warta Sieradz the favourite at 47%, against 22% for a draw and 31% for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Warta Sieradz (1,849) and Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (1,752).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Warta Sieradz have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki have 3, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ząbkovia Ząbki(home) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Troszyn(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Jagiellonia II(home) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź II(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(home) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olimpia Elbląg(home) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Swit(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ząbkovia Ząbki(home) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Troszyn(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Jagiellonia II(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Warta Sieradz score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki score 2.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warta Sieradz | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0 | 6/6 | 6/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Warta Sieradz sit 12th in III Liga - Group 1 (7 points from 5 matches) and Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki sit 3rd (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| 12 | Warta Sieradz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?
- The Footlab model makes Warta Sieradz the favourite at 47%, against 22% for a draw and 31% for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki.
- Where and when is Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki played?
- Warta Sieradz vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion MOSiR, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 3, 2026Wigry SuwałkivsWisła Płock II
- Oct 3, 2026Pelikan ŁowiczvsWidzew II
- Oct 3, 2026Jagiellonia IIvsTroszyn
- Oct 3, 2026Lechia T. MazowieckivsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- Oct 3, 2026ŁKS Łódź IIvsZąbkovia Ząbki
- Oct 3, 2026Mławianka MławavsSwit
- Oct 3, 2026ŁomżavsOlimpia Elbląg
- Oct 3, 2026WeszlovsOlimpia Zambrów