Moldova U21 vs Kazakhstan U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 23Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Zimbru, Chişinău
The Footlab model makes Moldova U21 the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Kazakhstan U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moldova U21 vs Kazakhstan U21?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Moldova U21 (1,398) and Kazakhstan U21 (1,340).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moldova U21 have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Kazakhstan U21 have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Georgia U21(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Malta U21(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | England U21(away) | 1-4 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Republic of Ireland U21(away) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Kazakhstan U21(away) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Belarus U21(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Belarus U21(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Republic of Ireland U21(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Slovakia U21(home) | 1-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Moldova U21(home) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Moldova U21 win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Kazakhstan U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | Kazakhstan U21 1-1 Moldova U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Kazakhstan U21 vs Moldova U21 on Nov 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Moldova U21 score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kazakhstan U21 score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova U21 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Kazakhstan U21 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moldova U21 sit 5th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (5 points from 8 matches) and Kazakhstan U21 sit 6th (4 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Moldova U21 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 5 |
| 6 | Kazakhstan U21 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moldova U21 vs Kazakhstan U21?
- The Footlab model makes Moldova U21 the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Kazakhstan U21.
- Where and when is Moldova U21 vs Kazakhstan U21 played?
- Moldova U21 vs Kazakhstan U21 is played on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Zimbru, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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