Monaco vs Lille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Louis-II, Monaco
The Footlab AI model makes Monaco the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Lille. The most likely score is 1-1. If Monaco wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Monaco (2,159) and Lille (2,119).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Monaco vs Lille
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Monaco
4-2-3-1- 29Paris Josua Brunner
- 8L. Camara
- 6D. Zakaria
- 10A. Golovin
- 17S. Idumbo-Muzambo
- 37E. Diop
- 15E. Dier
- 72Sadibou Sané
- 2Vanderson
- 20Flávio Nazinho
- 1L. Hrádecký
Lille
4-2-3-1- 18A. Ueda
- 10H. Haraldsson
- 6N. Bentaleb
- 19B. Önal
- 8E. Mbappé
- 21B. André
- 4Alexsandro Ribeiro
- 22Tiago Santos
- 3N. Ngoy
- 15R. Perraud
- 1B. Özer
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 09:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monaco have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Lille have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Lens(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Nice(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Monaco win, 1 draw, 4 Lille wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Monaco 0-1 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Lille 1-0 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Lille 2-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Monaco 0-0 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Monaco 1-0 Lille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Lille 2-0 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Monaco score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lille score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Lille | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monaco sit 1st in Ligue 1 (13 points from 5 matches) and Lille sit 4th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
A question about Monaco vs Lille?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monaco vs Lille?
- The Footlab AI model makes Monaco the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Lille.
- Where and when is Monaco vs Lille played?
- Monaco vs Lille is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Louis-II, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.