Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Parc des Princes, Paris
The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Lyon. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 170-point Elo edge (2,299 vs 2,129).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris Saint Germain have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Lyon have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-1 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sparta Praha(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Sparta Praha(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Paris Saint Germain win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Lyon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Lyon 2-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Lyon 2-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| May 25, 2024 | Lyon 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paris Saint Germain score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Lyon | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paris Saint Germain sit 9th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Lyon sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
- The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Lyon.
- Where and when is Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon played?
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon is played on October 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Parc des Princes, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.