Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Parc des Princes, Paris
The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Lyon. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (2,307 vs 2,157).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3- 7K. Kvaratskhelia
- 10O. Dembélé
- 14D. Doué
- 17Vitinha
- 87João Neves
- 8Fabián Ruiz
- 51W. Pacho
- 33W. Zaïre-Emery
- 5Marquinhos
- 25Nuno Mendes
- 39M. Safonov
Lyon
4-2-3-1- 17L. Openda
- 23T. Morton
- 8C. Tolisso
- 7E. Nuamah
- 2M. Bidstrup
- 10P. Šulc
- 19M. Niakhaté
- 20F. Bacher
- 13Z. Athekame
- 16Abner
- 1D. Greif
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris Saint Germain have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Lyon have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Lille(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Paris Saint Germain wins, 0 draws, 1 Lyon win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Lyon 2-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Lyon 2-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| May 25, 2024 | Lyon 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paris Saint Germain score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Lyon | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paris Saint Germain sit 6th in Ligue 1 (8 points from 5 matches) and Lyon sit 2nd (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
A question about Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Lyon.
- Where and when is Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon played?
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon is played on October 25, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Parc des Princes, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.