Marseille vs Le Havre: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Le Havre. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
Marseille starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (2,054 vs 1,896).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marseille vs Le Havre
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 9A. Gouiri
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 8H. Abdelli
- 77A. Harit
- 14Igor Paixão
- 7A. Gomes
- 22T. Weah
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 33Emerson
- 21N. Aguerd
- 1J. de Lange
Le Havre
3-4-2-1- 9J. Maja
- 7A. Richardson
- 25M. Samatta
- 26S. Ebonog
- 12E. Jelert
- 20D. Ouziad
- 38R. Fofana
- 15A. Seko
- 5A. Touba
- 23V. Sasso
- 93G. Gallon
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marseille have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Le Havre have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Boulogne(home) | 6-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Angers(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lyon(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Marseille wins, 0 draws, 0 Le Havre wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Le Havre 0-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Marseille 6-2 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| May 10, 2025 | Le Havre 1-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Marseille 5-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| May 19, 2024 | Le Havre 1-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Marseille 3-0 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Le Havre vs Marseille on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marseille score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Le Havre score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Le Havre | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marseille sit 17th in Ligue 1 (3 points from 5 matches) and Le Havre sit 18th (2 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
A question about Marseille vs Le Havre?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Le Havre?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marseille the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Le Havre.
- Where and when is Marseille vs Le Havre played?
- Marseille vs Le Havre is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Orange Vélodrome, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.