Marseille vs Le Havre: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
The Footlab model makes Marseille the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Le Havre. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
Marseille starts as the favourite with a 199-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,889).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marseille have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Le Havre have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Laval(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Marseille win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Le Havre win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Le Havre 0-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Marseille 6-2 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| May 10, 2025 | Le Havre 1-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Marseille 5-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| May 19, 2024 | Le Havre 1-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Marseille 3-0 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Le Havre vs Marseille on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marseille score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Le Havre score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Le Havre | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marseille sit 1st in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Le Havre sit 14th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Le Havre?
- The Footlab model makes Marseille the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Le Havre.
- Where and when is Marseille vs Le Havre played?
- Marseille vs Le Havre is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Orange Vélodrome, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.