Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
The Footlab AI model makes Toulouse the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Estac Troyes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Toulouse wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Toulouse (1,985) and Estac Troyes (1,958).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Toulouse
4-2-3-1- 13J. Russell-Rowe
- 23C. Cásseres
- 8T. Jørgensen
- 37Y. Azizi
- 9S. Hidalgo
- 14N. Sigur
- 12C. Tapé
- 3M. McKenzie
- 22R. Messali
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 16G. Restes
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1- 9J. Le Douaron
- 8M. Diop
- 17A. Mille
- 22H. Picard
- 29D. Karim
- 23T. Nkada
- 6A. Monfray
- 4M. Diaz
- 3A. Ouzenadji
- 2L. Maronnier
- 33P. Beach
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulouse have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Estac Troyes have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-6 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Toulouse wins, 2 draws, 0 Estac Troyes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2023 | Toulouse 4-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2022 | Estac Troyes 0-3 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Jul 9, 2022 | Toulouse 6-1 Estac Troyes | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 6, 2021 | Estac Troyes 1-1 Toulouse | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 3, 2020 | Toulouse 0-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 27, 2018 | Toulouse 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes on Feb 1, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Toulouse score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Estac Troyes score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Estac Troyes | 1.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toulouse sit 13th in Ligue 1 (5 points from 5 matches) and Estac Troyes sit 16th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Toulouse the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Estac Troyes.
- Where and when is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes played?
- Toulouse vs Estac Troyes is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium de Toulouse, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.