Auxerre vs Le Mans: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
The Footlab model makes Auxerre the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Le Mans. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Auxerre (1,957) and Le Mans (1,937).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auxerre have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Le Mans have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-5 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Werder Bremen(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sochaux(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angers(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Auxerre win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Le Mans win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2020 | Auxerre 3-2 Le Mans | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 10, 2020 | Le Mans 0-1 Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 2, 2019 | Auxerre 2-0 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 25, 2013 | Auxerre 1-1 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 20, 2012 | Le Mans 3-1 Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Auxerre score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Le Mans score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Le Mans | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auxerre sit 17th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and Le Mans sit 7th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Le Mans?
- The Footlab model makes Auxerre the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Le Mans.
- Where and when is Auxerre vs Le Mans played?
- Auxerre vs Le Mans is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.