Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 6Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
The Footlab model makes Monterrey the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Atletico San Luis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis?
Monterrey starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,957 vs 1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monterrey have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Atletico San Luis have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 6-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Atlas(away) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Club America(away) | 0-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-4 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-4 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Monterrey win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Atletico San Luis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Monterrey 1-2 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Atletico San Luis 0-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Monterrey 3-1 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Monterrey 5-1 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| Dec 5, 2024 | Atletico San Luis 2-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Atletico San Luis 1-0 Monterrey | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Monterrey score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico San Luis score 1.1 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Atletico San Luis | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monterrey sit 5th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Atletico San Luis sit 15th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis?
- The Footlab model makes Monterrey the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Atletico San Luis.
- Where and when is Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis played?
- Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis is played on August 31, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio BBVA, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.