Monza vs Frosinone: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)U-Power Stadium, Monza
The Footlab model makes Monza the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Frosinone. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monza vs Frosinone?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Monza (1,960) and Frosinone (2,002).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monza have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Frosinone have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Padova(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Juve Stabia(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Lazio(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sambenedettese(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Monza win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Frosinone win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Monza 2-2 Frosinone | Serie B |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Frosinone 0-1 Monza | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Monza 0-1 Frosinone | Coppa Italia |
| May 19, 2024 | Monza 0-1 Frosinone | Serie A |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Frosinone 2-3 Monza | Serie A |
| Aug 7, 2022 | Monza 3-2 Frosinone | Coppa Italia |
How many goals should we expect?
Monza score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Frosinone score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 2.0 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Frosinone | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monza sit 20th in Serie A (0 points from 1 matches) and Frosinone sit 17th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Frosinone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monza vs Frosinone?
- The Footlab model makes Monza the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Frosinone.
- Where and when is Monza vs Frosinone played?
- Monza vs Frosinone is played on January 10, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at U-Power Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.