Morocco vs Lesotho: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 6Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Complexe Sportif de Fès, Fès
The Footlab AI model makes Morocco the favourite at 88%, against 9% for a draw and 3% for Lesotho. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morocco vs Lesotho?
Morocco is a heavy favourite: 1,892 Elo points against 1,366, a 526-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Morocco vs Lesotho
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Morocco
4-2-3-1- 11I. Saibari
- 24N. El Aynaoui
- 8A. Ounahi
- 10Brahim Díaz
- 23B. El Khannouss
- 6A. Bouaddi
- 3N. Mazraoui
- 14I. Diop
- 13Z. El Ouahdi
- 2A. Hakimi
- 1Y. Bounou
Lesotho
5-4-1- 9M. Sera
- 11Neo Mokhachane
- 7T. Letsema
- 20T. Makhele
- 10Lehlohonolo Fothoane
- 20T. Makhele
- 21R. Mokokoane
- 2Motlomelo Mkwanazi
- 17Thabang Malane
- 13F. Matlabe
- 16S. Moerane
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 12:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morocco have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat; Lesotho have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Lesotho(away) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Gabon(home) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jul 9, 2026 | France(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Canada(away) | 3-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Morocco(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Niger(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Seychelles(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Morocco wins, 0 draws, 0 Lesotho wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Lesotho 0-2 Morocco | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2024 | Morocco 7-0 Lesotho | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 9, 2024 | Lesotho 0-1 Morocco | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Morocco score 2.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Lesotho score 0.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 2.0 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Lesotho | 0.5 | 1.8 | 4 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morocco sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (6 points from 2 matches) and Lesotho sit 4th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Lesotho | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
A question about Morocco vs Lesotho?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morocco vs Lesotho?
- The Footlab AI model makes Morocco the favourite at 88%, against 9% for a draw and 3% for Lesotho.
- Where and when is Morocco vs Lesotho played?
- Morocco vs Lesotho is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Complexe Sportif de Fès, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.