Morocco vs Lesotho: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 6Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Complexe Sportif de Fès, Fès
The Footlab model makes Morocco the favourite at 73%, against 19% for a draw and 8% for Lesotho. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morocco vs Lesotho?
Morocco is a heavy favourite: 1,888 Elo points against 1,373 — a 514-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morocco have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; Lesotho have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Haiti(home) | 4-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Scotland(away) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Brazil(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Norway(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Madagascar(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Seychelles(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Seychelles(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Malawi(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Morocco win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Lesotho win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2024 | Morocco 7-0 Lesotho | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 9, 2024 | Lesotho 0-1 Morocco | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Morocco score 2.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lesotho score 0.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 2.1 | 0.5 | 9 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Lesotho | 0.5 | 1.6 | 5 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morocco sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (18 points from 6 matches) and Lesotho sit 3rd (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Lesotho | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morocco vs Lesotho?
- The Footlab model makes Morocco the favourite at 73%, against 19% for a draw and 8% for Lesotho.
- Where and when is Morocco vs Lesotho played?
- Morocco vs Lesotho is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Complexe Sportif de Fès, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.