Senegal vs Ethiopia: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 6Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade, Diamniadio
The Footlab AI model makes Senegal the favourite at 86%, against 11% for a draw and 3% for Ethiopia. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,751 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Senegal vs Ethiopia?
Senegal is a heavy favourite: 1,750 Elo points against 1,389, a 360-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Senegal vs Ethiopia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Senegal
4-2-3-1- 20I. Mbaye
- 26P. Gueye
- 8L. Camara
- 17P. Sarr
- 7Assane Diao
- 5I. Gueye
- 19M. Niakhaté
- 25E. Diouf
- 3K. Koulibaly
- 2M. Sarr
- 1Y. Diouf
Ethiopia
4-4-2- 10A. Yalew
- 10B. Belay
- 21H. Tekeste
- 5H. Sherefa
- 12A. Yesouf
- 20B. Waza
- 16Yared Bayeh Belay
- 4J. Yakob
- 14S. Yohannes
- 2R. Selalo
- 1A. Nura
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 10:13 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Senegal have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Ethiopia have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Comoros(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Mozambique(away) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 2-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Iraq(home) | 5-0 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Sudan(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Senegal win, 0 draws, 0 Ethiopia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Ethiopia 0-1 Senegal | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Senegal score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ethiopia score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal | 1.7 | 1.2 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ethiopia | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Senegal sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 2 matches) and Ethiopia sit 4th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Senegal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Senegal vs Ethiopia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Senegal vs Ethiopia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Senegal the favourite at 86%, against 11% for a draw and 3% for Ethiopia.
- Where and when is Senegal vs Ethiopia played?
- Senegal vs Ethiopia is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.