Morton vs Kelty Hearts: prediction and stats
Challenge CupRound of 32Kick-off on November 3, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cappielow Park, Greenock
The Footlab AI model makes Morton the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Kelty Hearts. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,673 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morton vs Kelty Hearts?
Morton starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,526 vs 1,410).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Morton vs Kelty Hearts
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Morton
4-2-3-1- 7M. Garrity
- 21G. Gillespie
- 20C. Sandilands
- 27I. Wilson
- 19Kerr Robertson
- 17Sahil Bashir
- 2C. Ballantyne
- 6C. Okike
- 3J. Longridge
- 5P. Croker
- 1Elyh Harrison
Kelty Hearts
4-1-3-2- 11R. Cole
- 9K. Higginbotham
- 14J. Hislop
- 10I. Murray
- 26R. Cunningham
- 17M. Falconer
- 5C. Flatman
- 25G. Walker
- 3C. Hannah
- 15A. Davidson
- 1J. Smith
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 09:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morton have 2 wins, 1 draw and 12 defeats; Kelty Hearts have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Queen's Park(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Raith Rovers(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Edinburgh City(away) | 1-4 | FA Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Oct 13, 2026 | East Kilbride(away) | 1-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Stirling Albion(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Spartans(away) | 2-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Morton wins, 0 draws, 0 Kelty Hearts wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2023 | Morton 4-1 Kelty Hearts | Challenge Cup |
| Jul 15, 2023 | Kelty Hearts 1-3 Morton | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Morton vs Kelty Hearts on Oct 14, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Morton score 0.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kelty Hearts score 1.7 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Kelty Hearts | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Morton vs Kelty Hearts?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morton vs Kelty Hearts?
- The Footlab AI model makes Morton the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Kelty Hearts.
- Where and when is Morton vs Kelty Hearts played?
- Morton vs Kelty Hearts is played on November 3, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cappielow Park, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.