Motherwell vs Dundee: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Fir Park, Motherwell
The Footlab AI model makes Motherwell the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Dundee. The most likely score is 1-1. If Motherwell wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motherwell vs Dundee?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Motherwell (1,869) and Dundee (1,822).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Motherwell vs Dundee
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Motherwell
4-2-3-1- 47S. Palmer-Houlden
- 71J. Hodge
- 8L. Fadinger
- 11A. Lowry
- 18Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
- 77W. Vogt
- 45M. Emmanuel
- 5M. Moormann
- 7T. Sparrow
- 3J. Girdwood-Reich
- 1A. Paulsen
Dundee
4-4-2- 21B. Fink
- 19J. Westley
- 48E. Hamilton
- 14A. Forrest
- 28C. Jones
- 27J. Bevan
- 4R. Astley
- 5O. Bevan
- 7D. Wright
- 12I. Samuels
- 1O. Goodman
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motherwell have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Dundee have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 0-4 | Premiership |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Dundee Utd(home) | 3-0 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Falkirk(away) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 2, 2026 | ST Johnstone(home) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Hibernian(home) | 1-2 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Motherwell wins, 1 draw, 2 Dundee wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dundee 2-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Dundee 2-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Motherwell 1-0 Dundee | Premiership |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Dundee 1-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| May 3, 2025 | Dundee 1-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Motherwell 2-1 Dundee | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Motherwell score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Dundee score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Dundee | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motherwell sit 9th in Premiership (8 points from 8 matches) and Dundee sit 4th (13 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 13 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
A question about Motherwell vs Dundee?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs Dundee?
- The Footlab AI model makes Motherwell the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Dundee.
- Where and when is Motherwell vs Dundee played?
- Motherwell vs Dundee is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Fir Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.