Motherwell vs Dundee: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Fir Park, Motherwell
The Footlab model makes Motherwell the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Dundee. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motherwell vs Dundee?
Motherwell starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,974 vs 1,866).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motherwell have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Dundee have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | SC Freiburg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dundee Utd(away) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aberdeen(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Clyde(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Motherwell win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Dundee win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Dundee 2-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Motherwell 1-0 Dundee | Premiership |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Dundee 1-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| May 3, 2025 | Dundee 1-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Motherwell 2-1 Dundee | Premiership |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Dundee 4-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
How many goals should we expect?
Motherwell score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Dundee score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Dundee | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motherwell sit 4th in Premiership (4 points from 2 matches) and Dundee sit 2nd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dundee | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs Dundee?
- The Footlab model makes Motherwell the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Dundee.
- Where and when is Motherwell vs Dundee played?
- Motherwell vs Dundee is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Fir Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.