ST Mirren vs Falkirk: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The SMISA Stadium, Paisley
The Footlab AI model makes Falkirk the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for ST Mirren. The most likely score is 1-1. If Falkirk wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,043 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ST Mirren vs Falkirk?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate ST Mirren (1,778) and Falkirk (1,830).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for ST Mirren vs Falkirk
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
ST Mirren
4-2-3-1- 88K. Phillips
- 8R. Carr
- 19Ismeal Kabia
- 48P. Nsio
- 30F. Taylor
- 23C. Mochrie
- 13A. Gogić
- 3D. John
- 47C. Ramsay
- 53Henry Fieldson
- 1J. Chapman
Falkirk
4-2-3-1- 24J. Murrell
- 23E. Ross
- 16Finley Frank Barbrook
- 8B. Spencer
- 28B. Krauhaus
- 42Owen Eames
- 22R. Strain
- 5L. Henderson
- 15L. Neilson
- 3L. McCann
- 19S. Bain
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 11:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ST Mirren have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Falkirk have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aberdeen(away) | 1-3 | Premiership |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 0-5 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dundee Utd(home) | 0-3 | Premiership |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Hibernian(away) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Dundee(home) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Dundee Utd(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 ST Mirren wins, 0 draws, 3 Falkirk wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Falkirk 0-2 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Falkirk 1-2 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ST Mirren 0-2 Falkirk | Premiership |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Falkirk 1-2 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| Apr 28, 2018 | Falkirk 1-0 ST Mirren | Championship |
| Apr 17, 2018 | ST Mirren 1-2 Falkirk | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
ST Mirren score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Falkirk score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren | 1.7 | 1.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| Falkirk | 1.4 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ST Mirren sit 8th in Premiership (10 points from 9 matches) and Falkirk sit 9th (9 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | ST Mirren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 10 |
| 9 | Falkirk | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
A question about ST Mirren vs Falkirk?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ST Mirren vs Falkirk?
- The Footlab AI model makes Falkirk the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for ST Mirren.
- Where and when is ST Mirren vs Falkirk played?
- ST Mirren vs Falkirk is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The SMISA Stadium, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.