Motherwell vs ST Johnstone: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Fir Park, Motherwell
The Footlab model makes Motherwell the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for ST Johnstone. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motherwell vs ST Johnstone?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Motherwell (1,974) and ST Johnstone (1,925).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motherwell have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; ST Johnstone have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | SC Freiburg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | ST Mirren(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kilmarnock(home) | 4-3 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | East Fife(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Morton(home) | 3-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Motherwell win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 ST Johnstone win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-1 Motherwell | League Cup |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Motherwell 3-2 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ST Johnstone 2-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ST Johnstone 1-0 Motherwell | FA Cup |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Motherwell 2-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Aug 31, 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: ST Johnstone vs Motherwell on Aug 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Motherwell score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; ST Johnstone score 2.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| ST Johnstone | 2.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motherwell sit 4th in Premiership (4 points from 2 matches) and ST Johnstone sit 6th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs ST Johnstone?
- The Footlab model makes Motherwell the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for ST Johnstone.
- Where and when is Motherwell vs ST Johnstone played?
- Motherwell vs ST Johnstone is played on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Fir Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.