Motherwell vs ST Johnstone: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Fir Park, Motherwell
The Footlab AI model makes Motherwell the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for ST Johnstone. The most likely score is 1-1. If Motherwell wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motherwell vs ST Johnstone?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Motherwell (1,869) and ST Johnstone (1,878).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Motherwell vs ST Johnstone
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Motherwell
4-2-3-1- 47S. Palmer-Houlden
- 71J. Hodge
- 8L. Fadinger
- 11A. Lowry
- 18Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
- 77W. Vogt
- 45M. Emmanuel
- 5M. Moormann
- 7T. Sparrow
- 3J. Girdwood-Reich
- 1A. Paulsen
ST Johnstone
3-4-2-1- 9J. Fowler
- 8J. Holt
- 42R. McAlear
- 11S. Stanton
- 26M. Todd
- 99R. Paton
- 7T. Steven
- 33L. Smith
- 19D. Finlayson
- 3C. Diabate
- 1T. Steward
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 08:17 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motherwell have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; ST Johnstone have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 0-4 | Premiership |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Dundee Utd(home) | 3-0 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aberdeen(away) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Hibernian(home) | 2-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Motherwell wins, 0 draws, 2 ST Johnstone wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-1 Motherwell | League Cup |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Motherwell 3-2 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ST Johnstone 2-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ST Johnstone 1-0 Motherwell | FA Cup |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Motherwell 2-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| Aug 31, 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: ST Johnstone vs Motherwell on Aug 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Motherwell score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; ST Johnstone score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| ST Johnstone | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motherwell sit 9th in Premiership (8 points from 8 matches) and ST Johnstone sit 5th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
A question about Motherwell vs ST Johnstone?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs ST Johnstone?
- The Footlab AI model makes Motherwell the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for ST Johnstone.
- Where and when is Motherwell vs ST Johnstone played?
- Motherwell vs ST Johnstone is played on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Fir Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.