Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Motor Lublin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 208-point Elo edge (2,140 vs 1,932).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motor Lublin have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Lech Poznan have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Korona Kielce(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | GKS Katowice(home) | 1-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin(away) | 1-3 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Jagiellonia(home) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(away) | 2-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Motor Lublin win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lech Poznan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Motor Lublin 0-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Lech Poznan 2-2 Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Motor Lublin 1-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Lech Poznan 1-2 Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Motor Lublin score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin | 1.4 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motor Lublin sit 13th in Ekstraklasa (5 points from 5 matches) and Lech Poznan sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Motor Lublin.
- Where and when is Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan played?
- Motor Lublin vs Lech Poznan is played on December 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Motor Lublin Arena, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 5, 2026Wisla PlockvsSlask Wroclaw
- Dec 5, 2026Zaglebie LubinvsWisla Krakow
- Dec 5, 2026Pogon SzczecinvsGornik Zabrze
- Dec 5, 2026Piast GliwicevsJagiellonia
- Dec 5, 2026Cracovia KrakowvsWidzew Łódź
- Dec 5, 2026GKS KatowicevsLegia Warszawa
- Dec 5, 2026Radomiak RadomvsRaków Częstochowa
- Dec 5, 2026Wieczysta KrakówvsKorona Kielce