Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin
The Footlab model makes Pogon Szczecin the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Gornik Zabrze. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Pogon Szczecin (1,993) and Gornik Zabrze (2,041).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogon Szczecin have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Gornik Zabrze have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Motor Lublin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(away) | 2-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(home) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(away) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Pogon Szczecin win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Gornik Zabrze win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 0-3 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2024 | Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| May 25, 2024 | Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Dec 5, 2023 | Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Gornik Zabrze | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pogon Szczecin score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gornik Zabrze score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Gornik Zabrze | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pogon Szczecin sit 5th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 4 matches) and Gornik Zabrze sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?
- The Footlab model makes Pogon Szczecin the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Gornik Zabrze.
- Where and when is Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze played?
- Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze is played on December 5, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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