Where and when is Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa played?

Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Motor Lublin Arena, in the Ekstraklasa.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa: prediction and stats

EkstraklasaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin

Motor Lublin

Legia Warszawa

The Footlab model makes Legia Warszawa the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Motor Lublin. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?

Legia Warszawa starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (2,056 vs 1,930).

Motor Lublin win32 %

Draw27 %

Legia Warszawa win41 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motor Lublin have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Legia Warszawa have 11, 3 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Motor Lublin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Korona Kielce(away)	1-1	Ekstraklasa
Aug 16, 2026	GKS Katowice(home)	1-0	Ekstraklasa
Aug 8, 2026	Pogon Szczecin(away)	1-3	Ekstraklasa
Jul 31, 2026	Jagiellonia(home)	1-2	Ekstraklasa
Jul 26, 2026	Widzew Łódź(away)	2-2	Ekstraklasa

Legia Warszawa
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Piast Gliwice(away)	1-1	Ekstraklasa
Aug 14, 2026	Radomiak Radom(home)	5-0	Ekstraklasa
Aug 8, 2026	Korona Kielce(away)	1-1	Ekstraklasa
Aug 2, 2026	Zaglebie Lubin(home)	3-1	Ekstraklasa
Jul 24, 2026	Pogon Szczecin(away)	1-0	Ekstraklasa

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Motor Lublin win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Legia Warszawa win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 23, 2026	Legia Warszawa 4-0 Motor Lublin	Ekstraklasa
Dec 1, 2025	Motor Lublin 1-1 Legia Warszawa	Ekstraklasa
Mar 10, 2025	Motor Lublin 3-3 Legia Warszawa	Ekstraklasa
Sep 1, 2024	Legia Warszawa 5-2 Motor Lublin	Ekstraklasa
Dec 10, 2022	Legia Warszawa 4-0 Motor Lublin	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 1, 2022	Legia Warszawa 2-3 Motor Lublin	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin on May 23, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Motor Lublin score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Legia Warszawa score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Motor Lublin	1.4	1.6	3	9/15	8/15
Legia Warszawa	1.9	0.7	7	7/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Motor Lublin sit 13th in Ekstraklasa (5 points from 5 matches) and Legia Warszawa sit 1st (11 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Legia Warszawa	5	3	2	0	11	3	11
13	Motor Lublin	5	1	2	2	6	8	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?: The Footlab model makes Legia Warszawa the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Motor Lublin.
Where and when is Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa played?: Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Motor Lublin Arena, in the Ekstraklasa.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.