Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Enea Stadion, Poznań
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Raków Częstochowa. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (2,138 vs 2,031).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lech Poznan have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Raków Częstochowa have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(away) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Hammarby FF(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Hammarby FF(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Slask Wroclaw(away) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lech Poznan win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Raków Częstochowa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Lech Poznan 4-3 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Raków Częstochowa 2-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Feb 14, 2025 | Lech Poznan 0-1 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Raków Częstochowa 4-0 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Lech Poznan 4-1 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Raków Częstochowa score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Raków Częstochowa | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lech Poznan sit 4th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 3 matches) and Raków Częstochowa sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Raków Częstochowa.
- Where and when is Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa played?
- Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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