MSV Duisburg vs Waldhof Mannheim: prediction and stats
3. LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, Duisburg
The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Waldhof Mannheim. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MSV Duisburg vs Waldhof Mannheim?
MSV Duisburg starts as the favourite with a 178-point Elo edge (2,034 vs 1,857).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MSV Duisburg have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Waldhof Mannheim have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SV Elversberg(home) | 1-3 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Verl(away) | 4-2 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SV Meppen(home) | 3-0 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arminia Bielefeld(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern(home) | 0-1 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Hansa Rostock(away) | 3-3 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf(home) | 2-1 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | 1. FC Nürnberg(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 MSV Duisburg win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Waldhof Mannheim win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Waldhof Mannheim 1-4 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| Nov 7, 2025 | MSV Duisburg 2-1 Waldhof Mannheim | 3. Liga |
| Apr 12, 2024 | MSV Duisburg 1-1 Waldhof Mannheim | 3. Liga |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Waldhof Mannheim 0-0 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| May 27, 2023 | Waldhof Mannheim 3-1 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| Jan 23, 2023 | MSV Duisburg 1-3 Waldhof Mannheim | 3. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Waldhof Mannheim vs MSV Duisburg on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
MSV Duisburg score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Waldhof Mannheim score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSV Duisburg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Waldhof Mannheim | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MSV Duisburg sit 1st in 3. Liga (6 points from 2 matches) and Waldhof Mannheim sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Waldhof Mannheim | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MSV Duisburg vs Waldhof Mannheim?
- The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Waldhof Mannheim.
- Where and when is MSV Duisburg vs Waldhof Mannheim played?
- MSV Duisburg vs Waldhof Mannheim is played on December 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, in the 3. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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