Match

Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04: prediction and stats

3. LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)SPORTCLUB Arena, Verl

VerlFC Ingolstadt 04

The Footlab model makes Verl the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for FC Ingolstadt 04. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04?

A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Verl (1,953) and FC Ingolstadt 04 (1,925).

Verl win53 %
Draw22 %
FC Ingolstadt 04 win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Verl have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; FC Ingolstadt 04 have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Verl
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 24, 2026Hamburger SV(home)0-3DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026MSV Duisburg(home)2-43. Liga
Aug 9, 2026Alemannia Aachen(away)1-43. Liga
Aug 1, 2026RB Leipzig(away)0-4Friendlies Clubs
Jul 26, 2026Bremer SV(home)6-1Friendlies Clubs
FC Ingolstadt 04
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 15, 2026Preußen Münster(away)1-13. Liga
Aug 8, 2026Würzburger Kickers(home)2-23. Liga
Aug 1, 20261. FC Heidenheim(away)1-4Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026RB Leipzig(away)0-1Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026Palermo(home)1-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Verl win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 FC Ingolstadt 04 win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 8, 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 1-2 Verl3. Liga
Oct 1, 2025Verl 2-2 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
Mar 15, 2025Verl 1-4 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
Oct 19, 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 1-1 Verl3. Liga
Mar 17, 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 0-1 Verl3. Liga
Oct 14, 2023Verl 2-2 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga

Last archived meeting: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Verl on Mar 8, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Verl score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; FC Ingolstadt 04 score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Verl1.51.746/1510/15
FC Ingolstadt 041.61.548/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Verl sit 19th in 3. Liga (0 points from 2 matches) and FC Ingolstadt 04 sit 15th (2 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
15FC Ingolstadt 042020332
19Verl2002380

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
The Footlab model makes Verl the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where and when is Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04 played?
Verl vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is played on December 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at SPORTCLUB Arena, in the 3. Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Verl and FC Ingolstadt 04

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