Musanze vs Bugesera: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Ubworoherane Football Stadium, Musanze
The Footlab model makes Musanze the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Bugesera. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Musanze vs Bugesera?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Musanze (1,662) and Bugesera (1,679).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Musanze have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Bugesera have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | AS Kigali(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Marines(away) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 17, 2026 | Gasogi United(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Gicumbi(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Marines(home) | 0-4 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Musanze win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Bugesera win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Bugesera 1-2 Musanze | National Soccer League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Musanze 1-1 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Musanze 0-0 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Bugesera 1-1 Musanze | National Soccer League |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Bugesera 1-2 Musanze | National Soccer League |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Musanze 1-0 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Musanze score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bugesera score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musanze | 0.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Bugesera | 1.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Musanze sit 10th in National Soccer League (43 points from 34 matches) and Bugesera sit 9th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bugesera | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 39 | 44 |
| 10 | Musanze | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 37 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Musanze vs Bugesera?
- The Footlab model makes Musanze the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Bugesera.
- Where and when is Musanze vs Bugesera played?
- Musanze vs Bugesera is played on December 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Ubworoherane Football Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.