MVV vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
KNVB BekerRound of 64Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)De Geusselt, Maastricht
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 71%, against 16% for a draw and 13% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,146 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MVV vs Excelsior?
Excelsior is a heavy favourite: 1,980 Elo points against 1,658, a 322-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for MVV vs Excelsior
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
MVV
4-2-3-1- 11T. Verheijen
- 16R. Klaasen
- 7L. Daneels
- 10O. Dumont
- 18E. Sierra
- 24N. El Hamdaoui
- 6F. Dicke
- 17S. Wegen
- 22Sven Bouland
- 2M. Hofland
- 1H. Wentges
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 04:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MVV have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Den Bosch(away) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Heracles(home) | 1-5 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 9, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 1-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 0-4 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 MVV win, 1 draw, 4 Excelsior wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | MVV 1-2 Excelsior | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Excelsior 3-2 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Excelsior 5-1 MVV | KNVB Beker |
| Apr 15, 2022 | MVV 1-1 Excelsior | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 10, 2021 | Excelsior 2-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 20, 2021 | MVV 1-0 Excelsior | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
MVV score 1.1 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 11/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about MVV vs Excelsior?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MVV vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 71%, against 16% for a draw and 13% for MVV.
- Where and when is MVV vs Excelsior played?
- MVV vs Excelsior is played on October 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at De Geusselt, in the KNVB Beker.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.