Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr: prediction and stats
Azadegan LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on September 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Naft Gachsaran Stadium, Gachsaran
The Footlab model makes Ario Eslamshahr the favourite at 37%, against 37% for a draw and 26% for Naft Gachsaran. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Ario Eslamshahr starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,585 vs 1,481).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naft Gachsaran have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Ario Eslamshahr have 4, 8 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Mes Shahr-e Babak(home) | 0-2 | Azadegan League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Havadar(away) | 2-2 | Azadegan League |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Mes Soongoun(home) | 0-1 | Azadegan League |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Nassaji Mazandaran(home) | 0-3 | Azadegan League |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm(away) | 2-4 | Azadegan League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Nassaji Mazandaran(away) | 2-1 | Azadegan League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm(home) | 1-1 | Azadegan League |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Damash Gilanian(away) | 1-1 | Azadegan League |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Be'sat Kermanshah(home) | 2-0 | Azadegan League |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Saipa(away) | 0-1 | Azadegan League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Naft Gachsaran win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Ario Eslamshahr win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | Ario Eslamshahr 0-0 Naft Gachsaran | Azadegan League |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Naft Gachsaran 0-0 Ario Eslamshahr | Azadegan League |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Ario Eslamshahr 1-1 Naft Gachsaran | Azadegan League |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Naft Gachsaran 0-1 Ario Eslamshahr | Azadegan League |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Ario Eslamshahr 1-0 Naft Gachsaran | Azadegan League |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Naft Gachsaran 0-0 Ario Eslamshahr | Azadegan League |
Last archived meeting: Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Gachsaran on Jan 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Naft Gachsaran score 0.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Ario Eslamshahr score 0.6 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 22% probability of over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naft Gachsaran | 0.8 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Ario Eslamshahr | 0.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 4/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naft Gachsaran sit 13th in Azadegan League (31 points from 29 matches) and Ario Eslamshahr sit 11th (35 points from 29 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ario Eslamshahr | 29 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 35 |
| 13 | Naft Gachsaran | 29 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 21 | 29 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr?
- The Footlab model makes Ario Eslamshahr the favourite at 37%, against 37% for a draw and 26% for Naft Gachsaran.
- Where and when is Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr played?
- Naft Gachsaran vs Ario Eslamshahr is played on September 22, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Naft Gachsaran Stadium, in the Azadegan League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 22% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.