Naft Gachsaran vs Novin Ahvaz: prediction and stats
Azadegan LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Naft Gachsaran Stadium, Gachsaran
The Footlab model makes Novin Ahvaz the favourite at 37%, against 34% for a draw and 29% for Naft Gachsaran. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naft Gachsaran vs Novin Ahvaz?
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naft Gachsaran have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Novin Ahvaz have 0, 0 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Mes Shahr-e Babak(home) | 0-2 | Azadegan League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Havadar(away) | 2-2 | Azadegan League |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Mes Soongoun(home) | 0-1 | Azadegan League |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Nassaji Mazandaran(home) | 0-3 | Azadegan League |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm(away) | 2-4 | Azadegan League |
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Naft Gachsaran | 29 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 21 | 29 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naft Gachsaran vs Novin Ahvaz?
- The Footlab model makes Novin Ahvaz the favourite at 37%, against 34% for a draw and 29% for Naft Gachsaran.
- Where and when is Naft Gachsaran vs Novin Ahvaz played?
- Naft Gachsaran vs Novin Ahvaz is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Naft Gachsaran Stadium, in the Azadegan League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.