Navbahor vs Nasaf: prediction and stats
CupRound of 16Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Markaziy Stadion, Namangan
The Footlab model makes Navbahor the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Nasaf. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Navbahor vs Nasaf?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Navbahor (1,740) and Nasaf (1,740).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Navbahor have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Nasaf have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Nasaf(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bunyodkor(home) | 4-3 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Surkhon(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Xorazm(home) | 5-1 | Super League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Neftchi(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Navbahor(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pakhtakor(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kokand-1912(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Olmaliq(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Qizilqum(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Navbahor win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Nasaf win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Navbahor 1-0 Nasaf | Super League |
| May 4, 2026 | Nasaf 0-0 Navbahor | Super League |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Navbahor 0-0 Nasaf | Super League |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Nasaf 1-0 Navbahor | Super League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Navbahor 0-1 Nasaf | Super League |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Nasaf 3-2 Navbahor | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Navbahor score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Nasaf score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navbahor | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Nasaf | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Navbahor vs Nasaf?
- The Footlab model makes Navbahor the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Nasaf.
- Where and when is Navbahor vs Nasaf played?
- Navbahor vs Nasaf is played on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Markaziy Stadion, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.