Neftchi vs Pakhtakor: prediction and stats
CupRound of 16Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Istiqlol, Fergana
The Footlab model makes Neftchi the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Pakhtakor. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Neftchi vs Pakhtakor?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Neftchi (1,866) and Pakhtakor (1,853).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Neftchi have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Pakhtakor have 9, 6 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 1-4 | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Andijan(away) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Qizilqum(home) | 5-0 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Surkhon(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nasaf(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Al Hussein(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Buxoro(home) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Andijan(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Neftchi win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Pakhtakor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Neftchi 0-1 Pakhtakor | Super League |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Neftchi 1-0 Pakhtakor | Super Cup |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Pakhtakor 2-1 Neftchi | Super League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Neftchi 0-4 Pakhtakor | Super League |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Pakhtakor 0-0 Neftchi | Super League |
| Jul 1, 2024 | Neftchi 0-2 Pakhtakor | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Neftchi score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Pakhtakor score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neftchi | 2.0 | 0.9 | 8 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Pakhtakor | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Neftchi vs Pakhtakor?
- The Footlab model makes Neftchi the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Pakhtakor.
- Where and when is Neftchi vs Pakhtakor played?
- Neftchi vs Pakhtakor is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Istiqlol, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.