Bunyodkor vs Lokomotiv: prediction and stats
CupRound of 16Kick-off on September 15, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Milliy Stadium, Tashkent
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv the favourite at 43%, against 21% for a draw and 36% for Bunyodkor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bunyodkor vs Lokomotiv?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Bunyodkor (1,627) and Lokomotiv (1,666).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bunyodkor have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Lokomotiv have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Kokand-1912(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Navbahor(away) | 3-4 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Olmaliq(home) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Pakhtakor(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Xorazm(away) | 3-1 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kokand-1912(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 3-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Bunyodkor win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Lokomotiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Bunyodkor 2-0 Lokomotiv | Super League |
| May 21, 2025 | Bunyodkor 0-1 Lokomotiv | Cup |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Lokomotiv 2-3 Bunyodkor | Super League |
| May 21, 2024 | Bunyodkor 3-2 Lokomotiv | Super League |
| Aug 21, 2022 | Bunyodkor 2-2 Lokomotiv | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2022 | Lokomotiv 0-0 Bunyodkor | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Bunyodkor vs Lokomotiv on Apr 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bunyodkor score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bunyodkor | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Lokomotiv | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bunyodkor vs Lokomotiv?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv the favourite at 43%, against 21% for a draw and 36% for Bunyodkor.
- Where and when is Bunyodkor vs Lokomotiv played?
- Bunyodkor vs Lokomotiv is played on September 15, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Milliy Stadium, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 77% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.