NEC vs Ntugasaze: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)MTN Omondi Stadium, Kampala
The Footlab AI model makes NEC the favourite at 77%, against 17% for a draw and 6% for Ntugasaze. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,921 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NEC vs Ntugasaze?
NEC starts as the favourite with a 266-point Elo edge (1,526 vs 1,260).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for NEC vs Ntugasaze
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
NEC
Not enough data to predict the NEC lineup.
Ntugasaze
Not enough data to predict the Ntugasaze lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NEC have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Ntugasaze have 1, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Kigezi HomeBoyz(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Express(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | URA(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Mbarara City(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Lugazi(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | KCCA(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Mbarara City(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vipers(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | BUL(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Maroons(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
NEC score 1.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ntugasaze score 0.5 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC | 1.1 | 0.5 | 11 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
| Ntugasaze | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1 | 2/6 | 3/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NEC sit 3rd in Premier League (14 points from 6 matches) and Ntugasaze sit 16th (3 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NEC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
A question about NEC vs Ntugasaze?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NEC vs Ntugasaze?
- The Footlab AI model makes NEC the favourite at 77%, against 17% for a draw and 6% for Ntugasaze.
- Where and when is NEC vs Ntugasaze played?
- NEC vs Ntugasaze is played on October 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at MTN Omondi Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.