UPDF vs URA: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Bombo Stadium, Bombo
The Footlab AI model makes UPDF the favourite at 36%, against 33% for a draw and 31% for URA. The most likely score is 0-0. If UPDF wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UPDF vs URA?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate UPDF (1,300) and URA (1,387).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for UPDF vs URA
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
UPDF
Not enough data to predict the UPDF lineup.
URA
Not enough data to predict the URA lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 09:11 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UPDF have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; URA have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | BUL(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Express(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Maroons(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Police(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Entebbe UPPC(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Entebbe UPPC(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | KCCA(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | NEC(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | SC Villa(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Maroons(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 UPDF wins, 3 draws, 3 URA wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | UPDF 0-0 URA | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2025 | URA 3-2 UPDF | Premier League |
| Mar 7, 2025 | URA 2-1 UPDF | Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2024 | UPDF 0-0 URA | Premier League |
| Feb 6, 2024 | URA 1-0 UPDF | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2023 | UPDF 0-0 URA | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
UPDF score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; URA score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPDF | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| URA | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UPDF sit 9th in Premier League (8 points from 6 matches) and URA sit 15th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | UPDF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 | URA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
A question about UPDF vs URA?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UPDF vs URA?
- The Footlab AI model makes UPDF the favourite at 36%, against 33% for a draw and 31% for URA.
- Where and when is UPDF vs URA played?
- UPDF vs URA is played on October 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Bombo Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.