Necaxa vs Club Tijuana: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 16Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
The Footlab model makes Necaxa the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Club Tijuana. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Necaxa vs Club Tijuana?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Necaxa (1,853) and Club Tijuana (1,899).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Necaxa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Club Tijuana have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leon(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Chicago Fire(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(away) | 2-5 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cruz Azul(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | San Diego(away) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Austin(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Necaxa win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Club Tijuana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Necaxa 3-0 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Club Tijuana 3-0 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Club Tijuana 1-2 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Necaxa 1-2 Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Club Tijuana 2-3 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Necaxa 1-3 Club Tijuana | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Necaxa vs Club Tijuana on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Necaxa score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Club Tijuana score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Club Tijuana | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Necaxa sit 8th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Club Tijuana sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Club Tijuana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Necaxa vs Club Tijuana?
- The Footlab model makes Necaxa the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Club Tijuana.
- Where and when is Necaxa vs Club Tijuana played?
- Necaxa vs Club Tijuana is played on November 7, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Victoria, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.