Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 16Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, San Nicolás de los Garza
The Footlab model makes Tigres UANL the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Cruz Azul. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Tigres UANL (1,976) and Cruz Azul (2,040).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tigres UANL have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Cruz Azul have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlas(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlas(home) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Club Tijuana(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chicago Fire(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | New York City FC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Tigres UANL win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Cruz Azul win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Cruz Azul 2-1 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Cruz Azul 1-1 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| May 2, 2025 | Cruz Azul 1-0 Tigres UANL | CONCACAF Champions League |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Tigres UANL 1-1 Cruz Azul | CONCACAF Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Cruz Azul vs Tigres UANL on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tigres UANL score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cruz Azul score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Cruz Azul | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tigres UANL sit 16th in Liga MX (1 points from 3 matches) and Cruz Azul sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 4 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?
- The Footlab model makes Tigres UANL the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Cruz Azul.
- Where and when is Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul played?
- Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul is played on November 8, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.