Toluca vs Monterrey: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 16Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
The Footlab AI model makes Toluca the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Monterrey. The most likely score is 1-1. If Toluca wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (2,065 vs 1,938).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Toluca vs Monterrey
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Toluca
4-2-3-1- 26Paulinho
- 8N. Castro
- 9A. Vega
- 11Helinho
- 5F. Romero
- 35É. Gutiérrez
- 6F. Pereira
- 4B. Méndez
- 20J. Gallardo
- 17B. García
- 22L. García
Monterrey
4-2-3-1- 99H. Cuypers
- 17J. Corona
- 8Óliver Torres
- 18Cesar Garza Cantu
- 25O. Pineda
- 9D. Rossi
- 2R. Chávez
- 13C. Salcedo
- 3G. Arteaga
- 4V. Guzmán
- 1E. Andrada
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Monterrey have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 3-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Club America(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Toluca(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 2-4 | Liga MX |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cruz Azul(home) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Tigres UANL(home) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Toluca wins, 0 draws, 2 Monterrey wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Monterrey 2-1 Toluca | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Toluca 2-0 Monterrey | Leagues Cup |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Monterrey 0-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Toluca 3-2 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Monterrey 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Toluca 6-2 Monterrey | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Monterrey score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 2.1 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Monterrey | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 2nd in Liga MX (20 points from 11 matches) and Monterrey sit 10th (14 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 20 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
A question about Toluca vs Monterrey?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toluca vs Monterrey?
- The Footlab AI model makes Toluca the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Monterrey.
- Where and when is Toluca vs Monterrey played?
- Toluca vs Monterrey is played on November 8, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Nemesio Díez, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.