Toluca vs Monterrey: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 16Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Monterrey. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (2,062 vs 1,940).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Monterrey have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leon(away) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 6-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Toluca win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Monterrey win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Monterrey 0-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Toluca 3-2 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Monterrey 1-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Toluca 6-2 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| May 11, 2025 | Toluca 2-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| May 8, 2025 | Monterrey 3-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Monterrey score 1.8 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Monterrey | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 3rd in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Monterrey sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toluca vs Monterrey?
- The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Monterrey.
- Where and when is Toluca vs Monterrey played?
- Toluca vs Monterrey is played on November 8, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Nemesio Díez, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.