Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 16Kick-off on November 9, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio León (Nou Camp), León de los Aldamas
The Footlab AI model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Leon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guadalajara Chivas wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate Leon (1,924) and Guadalajara Chivas (2,010).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leon
4-1-4-1- 27D. Cambindo
- 29J. Rodríguez
- 203J. Lara
- 11I. Díaz
- 16J. Cortizo
- 18E. Guerra
- 7I. Moreno
- 14J. Romaña
- 3Juan José Guevara Possu
- 26S. Reyes
- 23Ó. García
Guadalajara Chivas
3-4-2-1- 9Á. Sepúlveda
- 28R. González
- 17R. Marín
- 25R. Alvarado
- 11B. Gutiérrez
- 37R. Ledezma
- 182L. Calderon
- 23D. Aguirre
- 3D. Campillo
- 16L. Rey
- 1J. Rangel
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:44 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leon have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Guadalajara Chivas have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 28, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 11, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 1-3 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlas(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Club America(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Club Queretaro(home) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Club America(away) | 2-2 | Liga MX |
| Sep 14, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home) | 3-0 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Leon wins, 0 draws, 3 Guadalajara Chivas wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 5-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Leon 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Leon 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Leon | Liga MX |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-2 Leon | Liga MX |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Leon | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Guadalajara Chivas vs Leon on Mar 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leon score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Guadalajara Chivas score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leon sit 5th in Liga MX (18 points from 11 matches) and Guadalajara Chivas sit 4th (19 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 18 |
A question about Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Leon.
- Where and when is Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas played?
- Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas is played on November 9, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio León (Nou Camp), in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.