Newcastle vs Manchester City: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester City wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,653 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Manchester City?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 256-point Elo edge (2,350 vs 2,094).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newcastle vs Manchester City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 10W. Osula
- 11H. Barnes
- 28J. Willock
- 6Nico González
- 7Joelinton
- 23J. Murphy
- 3Lewis Hall
- 37A. Dedić
- 5F. Schär
- 33D. Burn
- 21L. Horníček
Manchester City
4-2-3-1- 9E. Haaland
- 7I. Ndiaye
- 17E. Fernández
- 5E. Anderson
- 11J. Doku
- 10R. Cherki
- 45A. Khusanov
- 3Rúben Dias
- 27Matheus Nunes
- 6M. Guéhi
- 1G. Donnarumma
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 07:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Manchester City have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Everton(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Everton(away) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 20, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 5-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Newcastle win, 0 draws, 5 Manchester City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Newcastle 1-3 Manchester City | FA Cup |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Manchester City 2-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Manchester City 3-1 Newcastle | League Cup |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Newcastle 0-2 Manchester City | League Cup |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Newcastle 2-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Manchester City 4-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle vs Manchester City on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester City score 2.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Manchester City | 2.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle sit 13th in Premier League (11 points from 9 matches) and Manchester City sit 2nd (21 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 21 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 11 |
A question about Newcastle vs Manchester City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Manchester City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Manchester City played?
- Newcastle vs Manchester City is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.