Everton vs Manchester City: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Everton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester City wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,919 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Everton vs Manchester City?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 283-point Elo edge (2,483 vs 2,199).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Everton vs Manchester City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Everton
4-2-3-1- 11T. Barry
- 8K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 37J. Garner
- 45H. Armstrong
- 10J. Grealish
- 34M. Röhl
- 6J. Tarkowski
- 4J. Branthwaite
- 2A. Maitland-Niles
- 16V. Mykolenko
- 1J. Pickford
Manchester City
4-2-3-1- 9E. Haaland
- 10R. Cherki
- 7I. Ndiaye
- 5E. Anderson
- 17E. Fernández
- 47P. Foden
- 3Rúben Dias
- 6M. Guéhi
- 27Matheus Nunes
- 33N. O'Reilly
- 1G. Donnarumma
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 08:51 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Everton have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Manchester City have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chelsea(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 5-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 2-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 5-3 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Everton wins, 2 draws, 4 Manchester City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | Everton 3-3 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Manchester City 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Everton 0-2 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Manchester City 1-1 Everton | Premier League |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Manchester City 2-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Dec 27, 2023 | Everton 1-3 Manchester City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Everton vs Manchester City on May 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Everton score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester City score 2.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Manchester City | 2.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Everton sit 8th in Premier League (10 points from 7 matches) and Manchester City sit 1st (21 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
A question about Everton vs Manchester City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Everton vs Manchester City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Everton.
- Where and when is Everton vs Manchester City played?
- Everton vs Manchester City is played on December 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Hill Dickinson Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.