Aston Villa vs Leeds: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Leeds. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Leeds?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Aston Villa (2,225) and Leeds (2,173).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Leeds have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Augsburg(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 4-2 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Aston Villa win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Leeds win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Leeds 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Jan 13, 2023 | Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Leeds 0-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Jul 17, 2022 | Aston Villa 1-0 Leeds | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 10, 2022 | Leeds 0-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 20th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Leeds sit 8th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Leeds?
- The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Leeds.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Leeds played?
- Aston Villa vs Leeds is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.