Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Nottingham Forest. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Newcastle (2,152) and Nottingham Forest (2,149).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Nottingham Forest have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Newcastle win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Nottingham Forest win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Newcastle 2-0 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Newcastle 4-3 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Nottingham Forest 1-3 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle | League Cup |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Nottingham Forest 2-3 Newcastle | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Nottingham Forest score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle sit 10th in Premier League (1 points from 1 matches) and Nottingham Forest sit 15th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Nottingham Forest.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest played?
- Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest is played on December 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.