Newport County vs Exeter City: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 38Kick-off on March 29, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab AI model makes Newport County the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Exeter City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Newport County wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,768 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Exeter City?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Newport County (1,807) and Exeter City (1,820).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newport County vs Exeter City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newport County
4-2-3-1- 9S. Gwengwe
- 10H. Biggins
- 6C. Brennan
- 24M. Dibley-Dias
- 20Y. Bamba
- 23M. Adu-Poku
- 22C. Norman
- 5L. Jenkins
- 4K. Cameron
- 16M. Jacob
- 1J. Wright
Exeter City
4-2-3-1- 10J. Gordon
- 16C. Cummins
- 31J. Doyle-Hayes
- 8T. Perry
- 20George Birch
- 25A. Scully
- 3L. Woodhouse
- 5J. Fitzwater
- 2L. Samuel
- 6J. Taylor
- 1J. Bycroft
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 11:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Exeter City have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | York(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Plymouth(home) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Gillingham(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Oxford United(home) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Newport County win, 3 draws, 2 Exeter City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | Newport County 0-1 Exeter City | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 30, 2022 | Exeter City 1-2 Newport County | EFL Trophy |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Newport County 0-1 Exeter City | League Two |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Exeter City 2-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Exeter City 0-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Feb 16, 2021 | Newport County 1-1 Exeter City | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Newport County vs Exeter City on Nov 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Exeter City score 0.8 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Exeter City | 0.8 | 0.8 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 11th in League Two (14 points from 11 matches) and Exeter City sit 16th (13 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newport County | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| 16 | Exeter City | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
A question about Newport County vs Exeter City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Exeter City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newport County the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Exeter City.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Exeter City played?
- Newport County vs Exeter City is played on March 29, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.