Newport County vs Swindon Town: prediction and stats
League TwoMatchday 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab AI model makes Newport County the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Swindon Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Newport County wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 6,188 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Swindon Town?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Newport County (1,911) and Swindon Town (1,920).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newport County vs Swindon Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newport County
4-2-3-1- 28K. Etete
- 10H. Biggins
- 6C. Brennan
- 20Y. Bamba
- 8M. Smith
- 18A. Lewis
- 5L. Jenkins
- 4K. Cameron
- 34D. Sassi
- 16M. Jacob
- 1J. Wright
Swindon Town
3-4-2-1- 23A. Drinan
- 2M. Clark
- 24M. Virtue-Thick
- 25J. Thomson
- 19J. Snowdon
- 27A. Munda
- 33Joel McGregor
- 6J. Ball
- 26D. Butler
- 21K. Majekodunmi
- 1C. Ripley
Computed on November 15, 2026 at 12:01 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Swindon Town have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 3-1 | FA Cup |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Crystal Palace U21(home) | 1-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 4-1 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 1-4 | League Two |
| Nov 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 1-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(away) | 1-2 | FA Cup |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Newport County wins, 0 draws, 4 Swindon Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Swindon Town 0-2 Newport County | EFL Trophy |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Swindon Town 2-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Newport County 0-1 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Newport County 1-2 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Swindon Town 4-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Newport County 2-1 Swindon Town | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Swindon Town vs Newport County on Sep 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Swindon Town score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.4 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Swindon Town | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 14th in League Two (19 points from 15 matches) and Swindon Town sit 16th (19 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Newport County | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 19 |
| 16 | Swindon Town | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 19 |
A question about Newport County vs Swindon Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Swindon Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newport County the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Swindon Town.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Swindon Town played?
- Newport County vs Swindon Town is played on November 21, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.