Northampton vs Cheltenham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, East Midlands
The Footlab model makes Northampton the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Cheltenham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northampton vs Cheltenham?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Northampton (1,656) and Cheltenham (1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northampton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Cheltenham have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Brighton U21(home) | 0-3 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Evesham United(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Northampton win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Cheltenham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2024 | Cheltenham 2-0 Northampton | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 1, 2024 | Northampton 1-0 Cheltenham | League One |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Cheltenham 0-1 Northampton | League One |
| Jul 23, 2022 | Cheltenham 2-0 Northampton | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 22, 2020 | Cheltenham 0-3 Northampton | League Two |
| Jun 18, 2020 | Northampton 0-2 Cheltenham | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Cheltenham vs Northampton on Aug 3, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cheltenham score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Cheltenham | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Northampton sit 18th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Cheltenham sit 14th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cheltenham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Northampton | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northampton vs Cheltenham?
- The Footlab model makes Northampton the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Cheltenham.
- Where and when is Northampton vs Cheltenham played?
- Northampton vs Cheltenham is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Sixfields Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.