Port Vale vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Vale Park, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Bristol Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Port Vale vs Bristol Rovers?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Port Vale (1,786) and Bristol Rovers (1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Port Vale have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Port Vale win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Bristol Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | Port Vale 1-0 Bristol Rovers | FA Cup |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Port Vale 2-0 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Oct 3, 2023 | Bristol Rovers 3-0 Port Vale | League One |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Port Vale 2-0 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Dec 10, 2022 | Bristol Rovers 1-0 Port Vale | League One |
| Apr 18, 2022 | Port Vale 1-3 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Port Vale vs Bristol Rovers on Dec 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Port Vale sit 20th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Port Vale vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Bristol Rovers.
- Where and when is Port Vale vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Port Vale vs Bristol Rovers is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Vale Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.