Swindon Town vs Exeter City: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The County Ground, Swindon, Wiltshire
The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Exeter City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Exeter City?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Swindon Town (1,789) and Exeter City (1,766).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swindon Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Exeter City have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Swindon Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Exeter City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2024 | Exeter City 2-1 Swindon Town | EFL Trophy |
| Nov 21, 2023 | Swindon Town 0-1 Exeter City | EFL Trophy |
| Mar 8, 2022 | Exeter City 3-1 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Feb 5, 2022 | Swindon Town 1-2 Exeter City | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2020 | Swindon Town 3-4 Exeter City | EFL Trophy |
| Feb 1, 2020 | Swindon Town 2-1 Exeter City | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Exeter City vs Swindon Town on Sep 3, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swindon Town sit 7th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Exeter City sit 13th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Exeter City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swindon Town vs Exeter City?
- The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Exeter City.
- Where and when is Swindon Town vs Exeter City played?
- Swindon Town vs Exeter City is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The County Ground, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.