Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Windsor Park, Belfast
The Footlab model makes Northern Ireland the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Ukraine. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Ukraine starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,616 vs 1,493).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northern Ireland have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Ukraine have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | France(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Guinea(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Wales(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Italy(away) | 0-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Luxembourg(home) | 1-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Albania(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Sweden(home) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Iceland(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Northern Ireland win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Ukraine win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2021 | Ukraine 1-0 Northern Ireland | Friendlies |
| Jun 16, 2016 | Ukraine 0-2 Northern Ireland | Euro Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ukraine vs Northern Ireland on Jun 3, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Northern Ireland score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ukraine score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Ukraine | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
- The Footlab model makes Northern Ireland the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Ukraine.
- Where and when is Northern Ireland vs Ukraine played?
- Northern Ireland vs Ukraine is played on November 14, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Windsor Park, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.