Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Strawberry Arena, Solna
The Footlab model makes Sweden the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Bosnia & Herzegovina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
Sweden starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,612 vs 1,503).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sweden have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Bosnia & Herzegovina have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Japan(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-5 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 5-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Greece(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Norway(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Qatar(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Switzerland(away) | 1-4 | World Cup |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Canada(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Panama(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 29, 2026 | FYR Macedonia(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Sweden score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina?
- The Footlab model makes Sweden the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Bosnia & Herzegovina.
- Where and when is Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina played?
- Sweden vs Bosnia & Herzegovina is played on November 14, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Strawberry Arena, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.