Notaresco vs L'Aquila: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 10Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, Notaresco
The Footlab model makes Notaresco the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for L'Aquila. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notaresco vs L'Aquila?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Notaresco (1,740) and L'Aquila (1,726).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notaresco have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; L'Aquila have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 10, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Victor San Marino(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ancona(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Ostia Mare(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sammaurese(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Notaresco(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Notaresco win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 L'Aquila win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | L'Aquila 0-2 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Notaresco 1-2 L'Aquila | Serie D - Girone F |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Notaresco 1-0 L'Aquila | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 23, 2024 | L'Aquila 2-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 1, 2024 | L'Aquila 1-0 Notaresco | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| May 5, 2024 | L'Aquila 1-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
How many goals should we expect?
Notaresco score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; L'Aquila score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notaresco | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| L'Aquila | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notaresco sit 5th in Serie D - Girone F (51 points from 34 matches) and L'Aquila sit 6th (51 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Notaresco | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43 | 31 | 51 |
| 6 | L'Aquila | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53 | 44 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notaresco vs L'Aquila?
- The Footlab model makes Notaresco the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for L'Aquila.
- Where and when is Notaresco vs L'Aquila played?
- Notaresco vs L'Aquila is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.