Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes Nottingham Forest the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Nottingham Forest (2,144) and Aston Villa (2,202).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nottingham Forest have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nottingham Forest win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Aston Villa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Aston Villa 4-0 Nottingham Forest | UEFA Europa League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Nottingham Forest 1-0 Aston Villa | UEFA Europa League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Nottingham Forest 2-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest on May 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nottingham Forest score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nottingham Forest sit 15th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Aston Villa sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab model makes Nottingham Forest the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa played?
- Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa is played on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The City Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.