Serrano RJ vs Macaé: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Atílio Marotti, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Serrano RJ the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Macaé. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serrano RJ vs Macaé?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Serrano RJ (1,617) and Macaé (1,552).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serrano RJ have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Macaé have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | América RJ(away) | 0-5 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(home) | 0-3 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(away) | 2-3 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Resende(away) | 0-0 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(home) | 0-0 | Copa Rio |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Americano Campos(away) | 1-2 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Americano Campos(home) | 0-0 | Copa Rio |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Goytacaz(away) | 1-4 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Goytacaz(home) | 1-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 2-2 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Serrano RJ win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Macaé win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2023 | Macaé 0-1 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Serrano RJ score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Macaé score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serrano RJ | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Macaé | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serrano RJ vs Macaé?
- The Footlab model makes Serrano RJ the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Macaé.
- Where and when is Serrano RJ vs Macaé played?
- Serrano RJ vs Macaé is played on October 10, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Atílio Marotti, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.