Novara vs Folgore Caratese: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 2Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Silvio Piola, Novara
The Footlab model makes Folgore Caratese the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Novara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Novara vs Folgore Caratese?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Novara (1,779) and Folgore Caratese (1,858).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Novara have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Folgore Caratese have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Juventus U23(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alcione(away) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sampdoria(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Ospitaletto(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Giana Erminio(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arezzo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Vado(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| May 13, 2026 | Treviso(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Championship Round |
How many goals should we expect?
Novara score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Folgore Caratese score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Folgore Caratese | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Novara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Novara vs Folgore Caratese?
- The Footlab model makes Folgore Caratese the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Novara.
- Where and when is Novara vs Folgore Caratese played?
- Novara vs Folgore Caratese is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Silvio Piola, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.