Match

Numancia vs Navalcarnero: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, Soria

NumanciaNavalcarnero

The Footlab AI model makes Numancia the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Navalcarnero. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Numancia vs Navalcarnero?

On Elo ratings, Numancia has 1,976 points and Navalcarnero 1,921.

59%24%17%
Numancia winDrawNavalcarnero win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Numancia vs Navalcarnero

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Numancia

4-3-3
  1. 9Jony González
  2. 14Alejandro Gil Rochina
  3. 26C. Godson
  1. 8M. Gning
  2. 5O. De Frutos
  3. 6N. Lucas Rey
  1. 2Marcos Sánchez
  2. 16Carlos Gutiérrez
  3. 22Fermín Ruiz
  4. 4Ian Olivera
  1. 1M. Abad

Navalcarnero

4-3-3
  1. 11M. Jimenez
  2. 9Vizuete Perez Jaime
  3. 24A. Altube Suarez
  1. 14Javi Bueno
  2. 21I. Perera
  3. 15J. Cruz
  1. 6R. de Souza
  2. 5A. Espinola
  3. 3Juanmi
  4. 19A. Aunon
  1. 1A. Calado

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:41 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Numancia have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Navalcarnero have 7, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Numancia
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Real Ávila(away)1-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Oct 4, 2026Getafe II(away)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Sep 27, 2026Guadalajara(home)1-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Sep 19, 2026SS Reyes(away)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Sep 13, 2026A Madrid III(home)2-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Navalcarnero
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 14, 2026Recreativo Huelva(away)2-2Copa Federacion
Oct 11, 2026A Madrid III(home)1-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Oct 4, 2026RSD Alcalá(away)3-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Sep 30, 2026Real Murcia(home)3-1Copa Federacion
Sep 27, 2026Conquense(home)1-3Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Numancia win, 1 draw, 0 Navalcarnero wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 25, 2024Navalcarnero 1-1 NumanciaSegunda División RFEF - Group 5
Oct 15, 2023Numancia 2-0 NavalcarneroSegunda División RFEF - Group 5

Last archived meeting: Navalcarnero vs Numancia on Feb 25, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Numancia score 1.2 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Navalcarnero score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Numancia1.20.686/155/15
Navalcarnero1.91.2410/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Numancia sit 3rd in Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 (11 points from 5 matches) and Navalcarnero sit 8th (8 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Numancia53205011
8Navalcarnero6222998

A question about Numancia vs Navalcarnero?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Numancia vs Navalcarnero?
The Footlab AI model makes Numancia the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Navalcarnero.
Where and when is Numancia vs Navalcarnero played?
Numancia vs Navalcarnero is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Numancia and Navalcarnero

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