Where and when is Numancia vs Navalcarnero played?

Numancia vs Navalcarnero is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Numancia vs Navalcarnero: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, Soria

Numancia

Navalcarnero

The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Navalcarnero. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Numancia vs Navalcarnero?

A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Numancia (1,941) and Navalcarnero (1,859).

Numancia win52 %

Draw26 %

Navalcarnero win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Numancia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Navalcarnero have 5, 2 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Numancia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Zaragoza(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 17, 2026	Poblense(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 10, 2026	Poblense(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Marino de Luanco(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Langreo(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Navalcarnero
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Fuenlabrada(home)	3-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 26, 2026	Colonia Moscardó(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 19, 2026	Conquense(home)	2-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 12, 2026	CD Coria(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 5, 2026	Rayo Majadahonda(home)	2-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Numancia win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Navalcarnero win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 25, 2024	Navalcarnero 1-1 Numancia	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Oct 15, 2023	Numancia 2-0 Navalcarnero	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Last archived meeting: Navalcarnero vs Numancia on Feb 25, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Numancia score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Navalcarnero score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Numancia	1.3	0.9	4	9/15	7/15
Navalcarnero	1.3	1.5	3	7/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Navalcarnero	34	11	10	13	40	42	43

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Numancia vs Navalcarnero?: The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Navalcarnero.
Where and when is Numancia vs Navalcarnero played?: Numancia vs Navalcarnero is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.